The Daily Alpha
Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 37 articles from Seeking Alpha
Fed Wanted Data, Got Inflation (SPX)
- 10-2 hold at 3.75-4.00%
- Sept PCE +0.5% vs +0.3% Aug
- nominal spending = inflation guide
- December hike case builds
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Fed Holds, Eyes December (SPX)
- rates held; sticky inflation
- divided policymakers
- further hikes possible
- bonds, dollar in play
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Inflation Expectations Creeping Up (SPY)
- upturn near entrenched
- Iran war energy shock
- October composite: 1-year high
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Liquidity Storm Brewing (TLT)
- reserves below $2.9T; 1-year low
- SOFR 4bp above IORB
- refunding = year-end risk
- higher TGA could force Fed action
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Spooked, But Bullish Trends (SPX)
- tech rout; energy led October
- inflation >3%; Fed uncertain
- P/E compressed to ~18x
- Nov-Dec seasonality bullish
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Tech Selloff: $1T Gone (COMP:IND)
- AI worries hit indices
- INTC worst day since 1974
- top semis shed up to 30%
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Earnings Weighting Over SPY (EPS)
- Buy; shift to real earnings
- lower concentration vs SPY
- cheaper, higher quality
- soft S&P upside into 2027
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Three November Predictions (SPX)
- opposition sweep; gridlock
- AI, crypto scrutiny up
- Iran escalation; oil spike
- RTX headwinds; energy wins
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Midterms? Stay Invested (SPX)
- politics =/= investment signal
- 5 of 8 control combos since GFC
- S&P up all 9 Congress sessions
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Cycle Transition (SPX)
- leverage, speculative excess
- Ibovespa -13.9% Monday
- HY spreads -24bp in 2 days
- BTC -6.9% to $76,189
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Housing Glut Misread (XHB)
- 8.5-month supply, mostly unbuilt
- 23% completed vs 48% in 2008
- margins 19.1% -> 9.9%
- risk: completed share rises
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Debt Spiral Bullish Gold (GLD)
- global debt >$365T
- China, Japan, US unsustainable
- contagion risk
- bullish GLD
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Gold, Silver Dip = Buy (GLD)
- rate-driven pullback
- dip-buying case
- long-term drivers intact
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AI Reality Check (SPY)
- promise -> practice
- token usage surging
- cost per token falling
- model layer in flux
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Hyperscalers Cracking (SPY)
- strong Q3, stocks correct
- negative FCF; heavy capex
- marginal ROIC risk
- prefer AAPL, MSFT discipline
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Azure +48%, Still Short Capacity (MSFT)
- rev +19%; op income +21%
- margins near 50%
- Azure guide 49-50% Q2
- Buy
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AWS Beast Mode (AMZN)
- AWS +39% YoY; op income +55%
- total op income +61%
- capex pressures FCF
- fwd P/E 80% below 5-yr avg
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Alphabet: Miss That Wasn't (GOOGL)
- -10% drop = Strong Buy
- 17.5x fwd earnings
- $8.7B SpaceX paper loss
- Cloud $30.7B; $561B backlog
- PT $330, +16%
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Alphabet: Worst Day, Cheapest (GOOG)
- 12% drop; non-operating miss
- Search +12%, slower
- Cloud doubled; $561B backlog
- 18x core; PT $325
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Nvidia: Lock In Profits (NVDA)
- GM guide 71-72% Q4
- memory costs; receivables up
- 17.7x fwd P/E vs peers
- chart momentum fading
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Intel: Buy Signal After Plunge (INTC)
- upgrade after -25%
- Q3 beat: $0.52 EPS, $16.5B rev
- weak Q4 guide; PC constraints
- stop <$63; targets $82/$108
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Extreme Networks Buy (EXTR)
- FY27 rev guide ~$1.41B, +9-10%
- SaaS ARR +22%
- EPS $0.33 beat
- base case $28.01
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SpaceX: Valuation Unchanged (SPCX)
- rev $14.58B; NI $4.4B
- AI rev tripled to $7.56B
- cash burn, dilution
- Sell
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DoorDash + Instacart (DASH)
- DASH rev +34%; GOV +36%
- soft buy; valuation rich
- $17B CART deal risky
- CART hold
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Levi's Value Play (LEVI)
- guidance raised; organic +6%
- EPS $1.54-1.56
- GM 66.2%
- low-teens P/E; ~3% yield
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Coinbase: Cautious Upgrade (COIN)
- $333M adj EBITDA Q3
- subs = 49% of revenue
- cyber scare = opportunity
- cyclical; tactical only
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Strategy: Upgraded To Hold (MSTR)
- revenue miss; EPS beat
- BTC rally drove quarter
- BTC $78K floor cases
- hold
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Caterpillar: Sell -> Hold (CAT)
- -29% since sell call
- $78B backlog into 2029-30
- FY26 rev +17.8%
- 10% more drop = attractive
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Gorman-Rupp +65% EPS (GRC)
- adj EPS +65% YoY
- sales +11.8%
- debt down, cash up
- fair value $93.74, +26%
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Shell: Wait Before Buying (SHEL)
- Buy -> Hold; TP $111
- Q3 strong on refining, gas
- margins normalize 2027-28
- near fair value
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Vale: Buy Before Cycle Turns (VALE)
- weak Q3; costs better
- copper = 1/3 of EBITDA
- 4x fwd EV/EBITDA
- 27-33% upside
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Rio Tinto Neutral (RIO)
- iron ore output +2%
- Oyu Tolgoi copper +27%
- +$694M cost headwind
- modest upside; neutral
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Alamos Gold Strong Buy (AGI)
- selloff = opportunity
- output to double by 2030
- Turkey sale proceeds
- DCF well above price
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Ares Capital Hold (ARCC)
- NII $0.46 < $0.48 div
- NAV down 4 straight quarters
- 0.96x book
- MFIC deal +$0.40 NAV, 2027
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Capital Southwest Hold (CSWC)
- premium to NAV narrowing
- dividend coverage thin
- first-lien lower-mid market
- hold
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Highwoods Upgraded (HIW)
- Buy; Sunbelt office shines
- upgrade despite Q3 miss
- strong balance sheet
- investment-grade dividend
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Realty Income Hold (O)
- rates compress spreads
- loans, data centers grow
- AFFO guide +3.9%
- lags ADC, EPRT
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